Climate sceptics versus spin versus science
Blog Post | Blog of Christine Milne
Friday 13th November 2009, 3:19pm
by ChristineMilne in
The media storm over climate sceptics in the Coalition, triggered by Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's Lowy Institute speech last Friday and the ABC's Four Corners program on Monday night, is bringing much needed rain for a government whose climate credentials were looking very dry.
It has very effectively framed the debate in the Government's superficial way - the choice between action and inaction - and, in so doing, allowed the Government to again escape scrutiny at a crucial moment here in Australia.
I say here in Australia because the Rudd Government is not escaping scrutiny on the global stage, where its woefully weak targets and obstructive negotiating stance are coming in for some serious and sustained criticism.
The Climate Action Tracker website, a highly credible joint effort of Ecofys, Climate Analytics and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research, has labelled Australia's position "inadequate" and the Climate Action Network International has called the conditions Rudd and Climate Change Minister Penny Wong put on lifting their target to the still weak 25 per cent level "obnoxious".
Most telling, and most high-profile internationally, the entire team of negotiators from the developing world, led by the African delegation, walked out of pre-Copenhagen negotiations in Barcelona last week for 24 hours in protest against the refusal by rich nations to commit to scientifically credible targets of 40 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020. Although it received almost no attention in Australia, the walkout was from a meeting chaired by Australian delegates and Kevin Rudd was singled out in a post-walkout press conference.
Sudanese delegate and lead negotiator for the G77 plus China, Lumumba Di-Aping, focused his press conference on the hypocrisy of the rich nations at climate talks, asking the assembled media to "tell me of any politician who delivered on his political manifesto. Is it Gordon Brown? Is it Kevin Rudd?"
The African position exposes the Rudd Government's "action versus inaction" frame for the triumph of spin over substance that it is. That frame assumes that any action is sufficient in the face of the climate crisis when the most basic science tells us that that is not the case. If we take action in line with the Rudd Government's CPRS (what I call the Continue Polluting Regardless Scheme), for instance, we will trigger tipping points in the climate just as surely as if we do nothing at all. Action isn't enough - we must do what the science tells us is necessary.
On that question, I was fascinated to hear what Rudd had to say last week in expanding the definition of climate sceptics to include those who pay lip service to the science while either blocking any action or saying we must wait for the rest of the world to act before doing anything ourselves. As far as he goes, he is absolutely right.
But he left out the fourth kind of climate sceptic - the most dangerous and insidious sceptics of all - those who claim to take the science seriously, who stake out the moral high ground, and yet whose actions utterly fail to match their words. Rudd and Wong fit fairly and squarely into that category.
What does it say that, for all their fierce rhetorical battles, the actual policy prescriptions of the Rudd Government are barely different from those of the Howard government or the Turnbull Opposition? The design of the CPRS mirrors the emissions trading scheme designed by Peter Shergold for the Howard government in 2007 in its allocation of free permits to polluters at the expense of the community.
In many ways, the CPRS is actually worse - for instance the Shergold design would not have insulated transport from the scheme by offsetting the carbon price cent for cent with a cut in fuel excise as the Rudd plan does. And, for all the talk of climate scepticism, the Opposition has signed up for exactly the same targets that the Rudd Government has nominated. Their proposed amendments barely shift the goal posts on the scheme, simply sandbagging polluters marginally more.
While the media may choose to ignore what a serious response to the climate crisis looks like - the Greens' Safe Climate Bill - there is no excuse for the failure of serious analysis and commentary on whether the Rudd Government's actions match their rhetoric, let alone the science.
It is no exaggeration to say that the decisions being made in Australia and around the world in coming weeks will shape every aspect of the world that we will all grow old in. We cannot allow those decisions to be ruled by spin any more than we can defer to scepticism. Now is the time for science and substance.


I have voted for the greens
I have voted for the greens in the senate for years but your current denial of the new science on climate change (i.e. it's BS) means I won't be voting for you anymore.
It's BS?
Care to link to some peer-reviewed articles by actual climate scientists which show that it's BS? Philosophical essays by scientists with no expertise in climatology from the University of East Buttcrack don't count.
BS
Thats right Sam. We at the greens only belive in the science when it says what we want it to. Don't worry that the science is completely bassed on "Models" that have NEVER been able to predict our "climate" even 5 years ahead. Thats right not one of these model has shown to be reliable at all, but we will run with it for prediction into the next century anyway. But this isn't about the climate at all is it. Its the new age socialism. Take from the rich, give to the poor. If we at the greens have our way, ultimately humans and the environment don't mix. What do we choose? The answer is chillingly clear.
Greens ignore climate science
Report says Greenpeace ignores climate science at the expense of world poverty. Mates of yours Bob?
http://www.worldgrowth.org/assets/files/WG_Greenpeace_Paper_11_09(1).pdf
Reduce Immigration, or Have A small Emission Reduction Target
Agreed that the Australian reduction levels are low, but are people prepared to dramatically reduce immigration, refugees and illegal migration to maintain our current population levels. You cannot have it both ways, huge population growth and reduced emission levels.
The Federal Government has advised that Australia will increase its population by 60% over the next 40 years (30% / 20 years), and with that population growth, we not only have no hope in reducing emissions below 2000 levels, but we will not be able to reduce below today’s levels.
Remember that the millions of new additions to the Australian population will need millions of additional homes (thousands of new suburbs), tens of millions of fridges, washing machines, heaters, aircons, home lighting, etc, etc, etc. In addition, we put around 800k new vehicles on the road each year (in hard economic times), but with the additional millions of population, we can expect many, many million new vehicles on our roads as well over the next 20 years. Generally in most capital cities, you can forget about huge increases in public transport, as there is very limited corridors through older suburbs, so homes would need to be demolished, and new suburbs created for residents to move too. ie. more emissions.
Sure critise the Government for their low levels of emission reductions, but all (especially the Greens) need to push the Government to dramatically reduce our population growth, else we can start saving to pay the projected huge fines that we will have to pay from our taxes for not meeting some arbitrary emission reduction targets that will never be met.
Denying natural variation to prove it's all natural variation
It's disappointing to read such nonsensical points as put by Brad; Climate includes a lot of natural variation and expections of models lining up with temperature graphs at the 5 year level is a complete misunderstanding and misrepresention of what's known about climate and what models do. Averages of many models and many model runs reveal and predict underlying trends over the longer term whilst retaining a lot of variability on a year to year (or 5 year to 5 year) basis. As they should.
Natural variations that work over years and decades overlay a long term trend of more heat being retained within our climate system. Picking the downs of the natural ups and downs and failing to notice a longer term trend of more up than down only proves a lack of understanding of climate and climate science; that or reveals a deliberate attempt to decieve. Average Surface Air Temperatures have shown much greater "cooling" before and bounced back to give us unprecedented highs; Brad fails to show any cause to believe we won't see that again. It's certain that the world's leading scientific organisations expect we will see that warming trend continue. No question which I consider the most reliable sources on this.
The most recent decade has given us 8 out of the 10 hottest years on record (GISS - which includes the rapidly warming Arctic that others leave out). The highest sea levels on record and rising (CSIRO using tide guage and satellite data). Rapidly increasing melt of Greenland and Antarctic icesheets - so much increase in the melt rate that it's almost certain one crucial tipping point has been passed (GRACE and ICESAT satellite data). The lowest summer arctic sea ice extent on record (NSIDC). The highest ocean heat content on record (University of Colorado). There's more like that, from leading scientific institutions.
No alternatives for causation have survived scientific (ie true sceptical) analysis. In other words AGW is as true as best scientific inquiry can reveal. This issue is not going to go away.
I will be voting Green because they are currently the only party that appears treat this issue with the true seriousness it deserves. That I think new generation nuclear should be seriously considered as part of our energy future won't change that - I earnestly hope that the storage and distribution limitations of renewables can be overcome and renewables win out but suspect our energy sector's entrenched denial of the problem and it's antipathy to committing to the necessary groundwork on renewables will mean replacing coal plants with nuclear ones will be a hard choice to resist. Come on someone - start making cheap, reliable energy storage. Quickly!
Re: Ken Fabos
Ken, its happening. Check out Better Place. They offer a model of managed Electric Vehicle storage that will enable wind to provide 40% or more of our energy requirements. The amazing thing is their approach will actually make driving cars cheaper while at the same time set us up to slash emissions. So much for Grant and his blind insistence that emissions reductions must destroy our way of life.
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